Understanding the Nagorno-Karabakh Exodus: A Legal Perspective
In recent days, the world has witnessed a significant exodus of ethnic Armenians from the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. This mass migration, prompted by the escalating conflict between Azerbaijani armed forces and the predominantly Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh, has raised profound legal and humanitarian questions. In this article, we delve into the complexities of this crisis, exploring whether the exodus can be classified as a war crime, deportation, or even a crime against humanity, as suggested by legal experts.
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| Residents in vehicles attempt to leave the city of Stepanakert following a military operation conducted by Azerbaijani armed forces in Nagorno-Karabakh, a region inhabited by ethnic Armenians, September 24, 2023. A board in the background displays a Russian state flag and President Vladimir Putin. |
Historical Background
Nagorno-Karabakh, though internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, has been predominantly inhabited by Armenian Christians for decades. The roots of this conflict can be traced back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, when a bloody ethnic conflict erupted, leading to the establishment of the self-styled Republic of Artsakh. This region has since remained a flashpoint for ethnic tensions and violence, leaving an indelible mark on the collective memory of its residents.
The Current Exodus
As of the latest reports, over 90,000 out of an estimated population of 120,000 have fled Nagorno-Karabakh into Armenia. This mass displacement, reminiscent of the 1988-94 war in the same region, has rekindled memories of past atrocities and intensified mutual fear and suspicion between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.
Hikmet Hajiyev, a foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, has denied allegations of ethnic cleansing and genocide, asserting that there is no verified evidence of violence against local civilians. However, the international legal community holds a different perspective.
Legal Implications
According to the International Criminal Court (ICC) founding documents, "forcible transfer or deportation" is not limited to physical force but includes coercion and threats, creating a "coercive environment." Legal experts argue that such an environment was established in Nagorno-Karabakh through Azerbaijan's obstruction of essential supplies. Priya Pillai, an international lawyer, and Melanie O'Brien, a visiting professor at the University of Minnesota, contend that the mass flight meets the legal definition of a war crime.
Moreover, the blockade of the Lachin corridor by Azerbaijan, a critical lifeline for Nagorno-Karabakh, created an atmosphere of fear and apprehension among the population. Pillai suggests that this situation could escalate into a "crime against humanity" if it becomes part of a widespread attack. However, prosecuting these crimes faces obstacles as neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan is a member of the ICC.
A Genocidal Dimension
Melanie O'Brien goes further, arguing that the blockade was tantamount to the start of a genocide, as it aimed to inflict conditions of life designed to bring about the physical destruction of the targeted group. This assertion is supported by Luis Moreno Ocampo, the first prosecutor of the ICC, who maintains that genocide does not necessarily require mass killings but can encompass actions aimed at destroying a group's identity.
A Historical Perspective
To comprehend the gravity of this situation, it is crucial to remember the 1988-94 conflict that resulted in the deaths of around 30,000 people and the forced displacement of hundreds of thousands on both sides. The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention warned of dire consequences before Azerbaijan's offensive, predicting the potential for "genocidal destruction of a people" and the loss of their distinct identity.
In conclusion, the ongoing exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh is not merely a humanitarian crisis but a deeply rooted legal dilemma. International legal experts contend that the conditions on the ground meet the criteria for war crimes, deportation, and even crimes against humanity. However, the path to prosecution remains uncertain due to the absence of ICC membership by the involved states. This crisis serves as a stark reminder of the enduring scars left by historical conflicts in the region and the urgent need for international attention and action.
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